Institute of War: Putin made a big mistake

Institute of War: Putin made a big mistake

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest assessment that Russian forces will resume the offensive in the Donetsk region in the coming weeks after the arrival of additional Russian mobilized troops and forces withdrawn from Kherson.

According to ISW, Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region “will be under intense pressure” and Ukraine will likely have to redeploy some troops to defend against these offensives.

“Putin probably allowed Surovik to withdraw from western Kherson on the condition that he occupy the rest of the Donetsk region, using Russian forces returned from western Kherson, as well as newly mobilized troops. for defensive strategies, it is the most likely explanation for the continuation of the intensity of Russian offensive operations first around Bakhmut and then in the southwest around the Vuhledar area, which began on October 28,” ISW writes.

“The truce will benefit Putin”
“A prolonged halt or slowdown of combat operations in the coming months is highly unlikely. The Russians are not trying to create and strengthen defensive positions along the entire line, but continue offensive operations in the Donetsk region. The Ukrainians will almost certainly continue their counteroffensive operations that are already underway. Both sides are already fighting in very muddy conditions. They are unlikely to stop fighting when winter freezes the ground and makes it even more suitable for large-scale mechanized maneuver warfare,” ISW said.

“Any attempt at a truce or cessation of hostilities at this time would greatly benefit Russia. Putin must want such a ceasefire, it is in his interest. He must realize that he must give his forces time to recover and allow reservists to arrive on the battlefield in time to integrate into their units, train and to prepare for serious fighting.

The fact that Putin continues to push his generals on the offensive under these circumstances is a huge mistake from a military point of view. This probably stems from whatever psychological factor drove Putin to order the invasion in the first place, but increasingly from Putin’s need to show his toughness against the hard-line faction led, at least publicly, by the financier of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigogine.

Therefore, it is unlikely that Putin will be willing to seek a ceasefire unless it is accompanied by major Ukrainian or international concessions,” ISW concludes.